Bush: Steadfast, Determined... Oblivious

Dead Certain, Robert Draper’s new book on George W. Bush, portrays the president as a decisionmaker. (See the NY Times review at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/05/books/05kaku.html?ref=books and the first chapter at http://nytimes.com/2007/09/04/books/05draperfirstchap.html ) Bush would have it that he is steadfast, determined, and an optimist. His detractors call him stubborn. Actually, he is neither. He is something worse: Bush is oblivious.

The book also portrays Bush as a man of big ideas. His determination and optimism are, in his mind, necessary to inspire confidence and, therefore, encourage the robust following of his lead. The conclusion may be correct, but the premise is just silly. Bush’s principal “big idea” is to spread democracy in the Middle East. But there is no evidence he ever had that idea until after 9-11 and his decision to invade Iraq. The idea followed the decision. For leaders (or anyone) truly driven by ideas, the cause and effect works the other way: decisions follow ideas.

As for inspiration through confidence and certainty, there must be something to that. No one can follow a waffler or a plan that even the planner appears not to believe. But any decent leader would calculate based on observed facts and events. This is where Bush goes off the rails. Bush’s certainty fooled a lot of the people for a while, but it has now become apparent.

Bush was certain Iraq had WMDs and was in league with Al Qaeda. The people believed him and followed him to war. He was confident that the war could be won on the cheap because the U.S. would be hailed as liberators. The people believed him, or at least did not question.

Then it all blew up. The occupation force was inadequate to secure the country, looting resulted. There was no planning for insurgency or civil war, even though expert advisers predicted both. As Iraq got worse, Bush failed to reckon with events. He was oblivious to the facts as they were and as they newly appeared. As a result he lost credibility precisely because of his certainty. While he is still in charge, he leads no one.