Is this the end of Tony?

With just one episode left, there seems insufficient time for the Sopranos to wrap things up. Tony could get killed. That’s the quickest way and it seems more than possible now that Phil Leotardo has put a contract on his head and that the Lupertazzis have killed Bobby Bacala and (almost) Silvio. But I still think it’s too easy (and not just because the producers want to leave open the chance for a movie sequel).

LKA thinks that Dr. Melfi firing Tony as a patient is a signal to us that we should also lose faith in Tony’s humanity. Maybe. But I disagree for two reasons. First, murderer and adulterer though he may be, Tony has always been the hero of the show and essentially a sympathetic figure. For the show to end by saying that Tony was a bastard all along would, in essence, say the audience has wasted its time and sympathy on a monster. I don’t think that David Chase holds that view now or ever. I also think he would want to undermine the show’s premise in its final weeks.

I also think that Dr. Melfi’s turning against Tony is wrong and hypocritical. It has never been her role to reform Tony or to get him to stop his criminal ways. No, she takes her patient as she finds him, and tries to make him a healthier version of himself. After all, the doctors at the hospital know who Tony is, and no one says they should refuse to operate to save his life after he has been shot (ditto for Christopher and Phil). The studies now being bandied about by Melfi’s fellow psychiatrists all seem to be based on the role of a prison shrink whose role it would be to make the convicts into better citizens. That is just not Melfi’s job, and she would know that. (I did think the bit about him ripping up the magazine was pretty hilarious in this regard.) After all, Johnny Sack was a killer, too, and he was treated for his cancer by a world famous oncologist—and this was after his conviction and imprisonment.

One might compare the beginning of “Analyze This”, where Billy Crystal’s psychologist character tries to refuse treatment to Robert DeNiro’s mob boss. “What am I supposed to do, make you a happy, well adjusted gangster?” he asks. In the end, he comes to like DeNiro, and he helps him. In the same way, Melfi has always liked Tony, with the full knowledge that he had people murdered on a regular basis.

I must concede that there has been no advancement toward my theory that the show will end with AJ being arrested and him giving up Tony (except that AJ is out of the hospital and that Tony roughed him up a bit). But I am still going with it. One terrific way to end: AJ gets arrested. He is facing 20 years in jail—hate crimes, racketeering, assault, attempted murder on Junior. He agrees—or is merely asked—to testify against Tony. But meanwhile, Tony cannot be found. He is up there sitting in the attic, slowly going mad, and the show ends with doubt about whether he will give himself up to help his son, or kill himself, or get killed. (Interestingly, Phil was also in his attic when he refused to see Tony when Tony came to his door—he’s a bit nuts as well.)

One of the great things about the Sopranos is that Chase doesn’t feel the need to put a bow on things. It can be messy, like life, with no neat endings. Every season has ended that way—maybe the whole series will end untidily as well. By the same token, every season has ended with the focus on Tony’s nuclear family. If the show ends with him, Carmela and the kids finally breaking apart—over AJ especially—that is the way it could really wrap up.

Whatever happens, this has been a fantastic season, maybe the best ever. However it ends works for me.

AJ again

My theory that Tony's son AJ will cause his final downfall is gaining traction. Tim Noah writes in Slate:

We've discussed in the past how A.J., one of the few characters on The Sopranos who is not a murderer, is nonetheless the least sympathetic character in the series. He's spoiled, he's stupid, he's narcissistic, he's a whiner, and he's mean. But maybe not as mean as we thought. He seems genuinely horrified when Jason Gervase and his thug pals beat up a black bicyclist who crashes into Jason's car door. (Needless to say, the Italians call the bicyclist something a good deal less civil than black.) The violence and hatred that A.J. is witnessing with this new crowd is escalating, and he can't take it. "Why can't we all just get along?" A.J. tells his shrink, echoing Rodney King. Is series creator David Chase rendering A.J. more sympathetic so that we'll miss him when he gets killed, the outcome you suggest? Perhaps. But I prefer your alternative notion that, instead of dying, A.J. may kill someone. Or, being A.J., that he will witness a murder.

Here's how I see it going. The cops nab A.J., and he immediately confesses to being an accessory. The district attorney prepares to lock the kid up for years. But there is one way A.J. could get his sentence shortened. Tony could confess to two or three of the many murders the cops suspect him of ordering or committing. "Look, Tony, we know your kid isn't a criminal. He isn't the one who should do hard time. You are." Carmela and Tony fight bitterly over this proposed deal. Tony says A.J. can beat this rap. Carmela is horrified that Tony is willing to sacrifice his son to save his own skin. "You are a murderer, Tony, and if you won't tell them, I will!" The words are too much for Tony to bear. He pummels Carmela with his fists, really beats her up, for the first time in his life. (Unlike a certain recently departed HBO chief I could name, Tony has never assaulted a female.) Bruised and bleeding, Carmela calls the cops. They arrive, and Tony realizes he has no home left to defend. He confesses to three murders to save A.J. to whatever extent he can. The price turns out to be not only Tony's confession, but also Tony ratting out the whole gang—Silvio, Paulie, Bobby, Hesh, Janice, maybe even Uncle Junior. The only Soprano left unscathed is Meadow, who heads off to medical school in a daze, leaving Carmela, black and blue, alone in the house. Carmela's cherished delusion of sustainable mob-funded affluence is dashed. She will lose her house, she has already lost her husband and son, and Meadow may never again want to admit she even has a family. Goodbye, Bloomies; hello, Filene's Basement. Fade to black.

I agree, but as far as the cops or the feds will be concerned AJ is no inncocent. He has committed three serious felonies-- the acid-on-foot incident, the attempt on Junior, and, most recently, the hate crime against the Somali cyclist. No accessory, AJ struck at least one blow in each case. He could be liable on some 3 strikes theory.

And I think Tony won't fight it. He'll agree to go away to save AJ. It may even be his idea. Tony has always justified every sin by saying he is providing for or prtecting his family. In this he is the typical suburbanite whoe buys a Hummer or a McMansion on the grounds that "it's good for the kids" when, in fact, it's what the parents want. But Tony's redeeming feature, I think, is he really believe it. Thus Toby will be be the hero AND get away from the life that has long tormented him.

I also don't think he'll take the gang down with him. Snitches rat out higher-ups, not subordinate. He may rat out Phil.

I also don' think AJ is unsympathetic. Just pathetic.

Is this the end of Tony?

My prediction for the Sopranos denouement—that A.J.’s crisis will spell Tony’s demise (see 4/23/07 entry) is looking better. In this week’s episode, A.J. becomes involved with some college bookies. On a lark (their’s, not his) they kidnap one of their bettors, beat him and pour acid on his foot. A.J. isn’t just along for the ride; he’s driving the car. The victim has been introduced the “Anthony Soprano Jr.” as if he is a member of the gang. Thus, the feds can nail A.J. on serious federal crimes, including perhaps a RICO count. The sand and beautiful part is that Tony put A.J. up to it, insisting he go to a stripper party—and thinking even after the fact that A.J. doing so was a good idea. After all, it got the depressed and newly medicated scion of the family out of the house. Now when the feds grab A.J. the pressure will be on for him to give up Tony, and Tony can only tell him to do just that. Thus Tony will fall by his own hand. A perfect demise: surprising and inevitable at once.